• Bitcoin has reached a “decision point” in terms of price action, according to an analysis from Glassnode.
• The four BTC metrics to watch are STH-MVRV, STH-SOPR, SOPR Delta and Miner Positioning.
• If these metrics hit “reset levels”, it could signify a healthy retracement required for the continuation of the 2023 bull market.
Bitcoin Reaches “Decision Point”
Bitcoin BTC $26,698 has reached a “decision point” for price action, but speculators are in charge, says a new analysis from Checkmate — lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode. Struggling near key trend lines, BTC/USD is giving an increasing number of long-time market participants cold feet this month as downside price predictions flow in.
Metrics to Watch
On-chain analysts’ attention is increasingly focusing on short-term holders (STHs) when it comes to where the price might head next. Various metrics specifically covering STHs — defined as entities hodling coins for 155 days or less — are approaching “reset levels” after a period of exuberance. These include Short Term Holders Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV), Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), Spent Output Profit Ratio Delta (SOPR Delta) and Miner Positioning.
The first metric is STH Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV). This measures the value of coins moved by STHs compared to those coins’ value as a portion of the overall Bitcoin market cap; when at 1.0, it corresponds to their breakeven point – currently estimated at around $26,500 if resetting should occur.
The second metric is Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR). This is a ‘price sold versus price paid’ metric that gauges the profitability of spent outputs; if below 1.0 it suggests ‘loss dominance’ among STHs and demands dip buyers step in next.
Checkmate believes that these metrics will ultimately decide whether or not Bitcoin bulls can continue upwards momentum – or alternatively succumb to short term sellers who have rapidly been losing profitability over recent weeks and months